So! Legitimate question: Are we sure the best team we saw open the season in Tokyo was the Dodgers?
After the Cubs swept a two-game series against the Dodgers at Wrigley Field this week, including a wild 11-10 comeback victory on Tuesday, one does have to wonder: Are the Cubs the best team in the National League (or even in MLB) right now?
This is a team many wondered about over the offseason, largely because after it made a big splash by trading for Kyle Tucker on Dec. 13, it did not add much to a roster that in 2024 went 83-79 for the second consecutive season. (In fact, Chicago subtracted by trading Cody Bellinger on Dec. 17.)
Yet five weeks after losing both games of the Tokyo Series to the Dodgers, the Cubs look to be in midseason form — and for all the world like they are ticketed for October. After clinching the season series vs. the Dodgers, four games to three, the Cubs were off Thursday and hold a three-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central as the Phillies come to Wrigley for a three-game weekend series that begins Friday afternoon.
Chicago has the best offense in baseball, and it’s 14-6 since going 2-4. Even more impressive: They’ve done it against an early-season schedule that many thought would wreck them. According to Baseball-Reference, the Cubs have the toughest strength of schedule of any team so far, including playing only three of their 26 games against sub-.500 teams.
That schedule doesn’t get immediately easier, with four of their next five series coming against the Phillies, Brewers, Giants and Mets — more teams with a winning record. But it lets up considerably after that, meaning Chicago is perfectly positioned in many ways: Off to a great start with open skies ahead.
In fact, I’d argue that of all the teams in baseball — including the Dodgers — Chicago is the most likely to reach the postseason. Here are five reasons why.
1) Their offense is incredible everywhere.
How well-rounded is the Cubs’ offense? They entered Thursday third in the Majors in home runs (38) … and first in steals (40). That’s the sort of combination that will give you MLB’s highest-scoring offense (which they do indeed have, at 6.3 runs per game, well ahead of the Yankees and D-backs, at 5.5).
The Cubs have some stars — and we’ll get to those in a second — but it’s worth noting that their lineup is solid and consistent from top to bottom. Only two positions are lagging: Shortstop (where Dansby Swanson is hitting .192) and third base (where rookie Matt Shaw struggled before he was sent to Triple-A Iowa).
On the other hand, DH Seiya Suzuki is showing why the Cubs wanted him so badly in the first place, Michael Busch has been splendid (offensively and defensively) at first base, the Carson Kelly-Miguel Amaya catching combo is putting up industry-standard numbers at the position and veterans Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ are both having resurgent years. There’s nowhere for opposing pitchers to hide in this lineup right now.
2) Tucker is having an MVP season.
No one is surprised that Tucker is off to a great start. He has been one of the best players in baseball for years now, he has a new team and a fanbase that already adores him, and he’s in his walk year prior to free agency, with every possible incentive to be his best self.
But goodness: Tucker is an absolute monster so far. His slash numbers, .314/.423/.637, are all career highs, he’s playing a terrific right field, he’s even stealing bases at a career-high clip (7-for-7). Tucker is also a part of everything. He’s knocking guys in (third in the NL in RBIs with 25) and getting knocked in himself (first in MLB in runs scored with 25).
He’s basically doing everything right. Remember when everyone talked about how underrated and underappreciated Tucker was? There is nothing underappreciated about him right now: He is your early NL MVP frontrunner.
3) Crow-Armstrong is breaking out.
Has your team played against Pete Crow-Armstrong yet? He’s so good at everything, so pesky and so relentless that he has probably driven you a bit crazy. You win championships with players like that.
Crow-Armstrong, long considered one of the Cubs’ top prospects, has emerged as a All-Star-level player this season, culminating in his three-run homer on Wednesday to beat the Dodgers on a night during which he went 3-for-4 with two stolen bases.
“It’s what special players are capable of — impacting all areas of the game,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said about Crow-Armstrong after that game. “Swinging the bat. Power. Baserunning. Defense. It was a wonderful game and he made his presence felt in a big way, for sure.”
Crow-Armstrong is tied for second in the NL in steals (10), he’s hitting homers (five), he’s almost a .300 hitter (.294) and he’s already one of the best center fielders in baseball (plus-6 Outs Above Average, tied for the MLB lead). You might like him to walk a little bit more — he has only six on the season — and you wonder if pitchers will start exploiting that. But even if he cools off a bit, Crow-Armstrong still central to everything the Cubs want to do.
4) They’ll likely go get some pitching help.
The worst thing that has happened to the Cubs this year was the loss of All-Star starting pitcher Justin Steele, who had season-ending surgery on his right elbow on April 18. That has put an obvious strain on a rotation that already was not necessarily one of the team’s strengths.
But the offensive’s explosion has bought the Cubs some time — as has Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd being fantastic so far — to figure out how they’re going to fill Steele’s spot down the line. While the team didn’t add as much post-Tucker-trade as fans might have liked, they’re going to have plenty of options to add to the rotation as the Trade Deadline approaches, and they have the Top 10 farm system to go get an impact starter.
If Shaw doesn’t figure things out in Triple-A, they can fill that third base spot through the trade market. The Cubs are now so obviously contenders in 2025 — the one season they’re guaranteed to have Tucker, don’t forget — that they have every incentive to address their weaknesses. They will have time and opportunity to do so.
5) The division is quite winnable.
Why am I most sure the Cubs are going to make the playoffs? This isn’t the NL East or the NL West, both of which look extremely strong. By contrast, the rest of the NL Central shouldn’t strike fear into Chicago’s hearts.
The Pirates didn’t add much to help out Paul Skenes and are feeling the consequences. The Cardinals have a feisty young offense that’s getting undercut by a bullpen with eight losses and a 5.11 ERA. Both of those teams are off to a 10-15 start.
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