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Chicago Cubs Stellar Performance Has Playoff Odds Skyrocketing This Season

Posted on April 28, 2025

The Chicago Cubs were a team that many people were keeping a close eye on coming into the 2025 MLB regular season.

There was a good amount of pressure on the team to perform, with the president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, and general manager Carter Hawkins both being on expiring contracts. If the team didn’t show major improvements on the field, some major changes could have been on the horizon.

A massive addition was made to help get the offense on track, acquiring Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros. A three-time All-Star, he is talented enough to elevate an entire group, and he has lived up to that billing.

The star right fielder has been playing at an MVP-level through 27 games with a .308/.414/.617 slash line. He has hit seven home runs, eight doubles and two triples with 25 RBI and eight stolen bases, making an impact in every facet offensively.

He has set the tone for his teammates, who have followed suit with several other breakout performers alongside him.

Michael Busch has not fallen victim to the sophomore slump with a .295/.386/.568 slash line with five home runs, seven doubles and 16 RBI.

Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is turning into a legitimate star. His defense remains elite and he has figured things out at the plate with a .295/.339/.543 slash line, hitting five home runs with nine doubles and one triple. He is also leading the MLB with 12 stolen bases.

The biggest surprise contributor is arguably catcher Carson Kelly, who signed a modest two-year, $11.5 million deal in free agency and is leading the team with an OPS+ of 284. He hit for the cycle in his third appearance of the campaign and has not stopped producing since.

The Cubs have had a historic month when it comes to stolen bases, racking up 44 and counting, being caught only six times for an MLB-best 88% successful steal rate.

They have combined that speed with an incredible amount of power, launching 38 home runs, marking one of the most productive months in franchise history.

It has all been needed with some shaky performances on the mound. The bullpen has been a sore spot again and injuries have decimated the starting rotation.

But that hasn’t stopped Chicago from announcing its presence as a legitimate contender, leading the National League Central with a 17-10 record. Entering play on April 26, they were the only team in the division over the .500 mark.

Tied for the second most wins in baseball, it should come as little surprise that they have one of the largest playoff odds increases in the MLB through the first four weeks.

As shared by FanGraphs, the Cubs had a 48.3% chance of making the postseason entering the campaign. Those odds have jumped to 66.7% through April 23, with the +18.4% jump being the fourth highest in the league.

This unprecedented offensive production may not be sustainable, but Chicago has proven it can keep up with anyone when it comes to scoring runs. If they can figure things out on the mound, they will be that much more dangerous.

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