The 2025 NFL Draft is exactly two weeks away, and the rumors surrounding the Top 10 are spinning. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has already put out his final mock of the draft season, and many others will do the same over the next 14 days. As previously noted, the Chicago Bears find themselves in a tough spot when it comes to projecting what their options at No. 10 overall could look like on draft night.
In my previous installment, I mocked out three trade down scenarios that could be realistic for the Bears. With the current narrative of this draft, it’s safe to assume that no team trading back in the first round will receive full value. The reason why is quite simple: There’s a scarcity of blue-chip talent, and without a clear QB2 in this class, the value of each pick diminishes. How much? We will not truly know until Thursday night kicks off. Now that we are flipping the thought process into being aggressive, let’s dive deeper into what it would cost the Bears to trade up in each scenario from picks three through nine and who they might target with those picks.
Similar to my last experiment, we will operate under the assumption that the expected trade value received will sit around 85-90% of the total expected value from the Jimmy Johnson value chart. Not all of these will fall directly in line with that, but this will be the overall guideline I’ll use with each projected trade cost.
A few weeks ago, it would have felt safe to assume that the Giants were in line to take quarterback Shadeur Sanders at No. 3. Following the additions of Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson, it appears that New York’s current regime has gone into operation “Save My Job” mode. Because of that, it’s fair to question how much value someone like Abdul Carter has to them.
There’s an argument that he is the best player in this class, but the Giants already have both Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux on the edge. No team can ever have enough good pass rushers, but what if the Giants value adding more picks while still taking a talented player later in the draft? This assumes that Travis Hunter will go No. 2 overall to the Cleveland Browns, which is the current expectation.
For the Bears, this would be an opportunity to add a potentially elite edge rusher to their defense while not sacrificing too much in the present. Sure, having two second-round selections is ideal, especially in this class, but if they can add someone like Carter while still having the wiggle room of trading down at No. 39 and holding their third-round selection (No. 72), maybe this swing is worth the potential risk.
No. 4 overall is where first-round picks start to lose more value. The top three picks always hold a certain value, but as seen above, the 400-point drop off is notable because it could drastically change the compensation given up in a move up. The Patriots are in a tough spot right now. By all accounts, they are hoping for Hunter, while fully expecting to take an offensive lineman or maybe Mason Graham. Considering where they are in their rebuild under new head coach Mike Vrabel, additional picks (both this year and next year) could loom as a big value for a roster that still needs a serious infusion of talent.
This would require a strong conviction on at least one player for the Bears. I have no doubt they “like” Campbell, but do they love him enough to trade a pair of third-round picks for the rights to draft him? If they were to make this move with Hunter and Carter off the board, my gut tells me that this would be for Graham. This is a deep defensive tackle class, but on the surface, no player brings more upside and a well-rounded skill set on the defensive interior than Graham does. There’s been plenty of speculation from Bears fans following a new episode of 1920 Football Drive. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is seen asking general manager Ryan Poles where he had a certain player “at one or two”.
Clearly, Allen was infatuated with whoever it was, and the reflection in the glass shows Graham being interviewed by the NFL Network, with no one else running drills behind him. I’m not fully ready to subscribe to that conspiracy theory, but Graham would be a huge value to this defense for years to come and might be worth trading up for.