After what feels like weeks of challenging games, the Cubs won a relatively easy one against a Phillies team that is heading in the wrong direction right now. There is a lot of baseball to be played and it is hard to imagine them not getting themselves back into contention, but on Friday afternoon they could not sustain any offense and they lost their fifth straight.
That’s probably been the most interesting thing in the early going. The Cubs schedule for the early season was brutal — on paper. We’ve all been down these roads before. So often what it looks like on paper and what happens in reality don’t align. Through 26 games, the Cubs played teams who, with just one exception, looked good on paper and also have been in reality. That one exception is the Sacramento A’s who have actually been a little better than they looked pre-season. That also means that the weakest spot on the early schedule actually has been pretty decent in games where they aren’t facing the Cubs.
The last “comfortable” win was a week ago when they also beat the Diamondbacks by four. One week earlier than that, a close game against the Dodgers exploded into a 16-0 win. Those two games were Saturday games. This one a Friday. So the weekend has been decently strong for this team, for whatever that’s worth. The Cubs are now 7-3 in the first game of a series. So they are jumping out ahead in the series and pressuring their opponents. Conversely, the Cubs already have six losses in the last game of a series. That’s a spot to clean up. But that’s a problem for Sunday.
Colin Rea started. If you dismissed Colin as a guy who could provide value to this team, you’ve been wrong to this point. He now has 19 strikeouts in 18⅔ innings while allowing only two runs. He started 27 games for the Brewers a year ago and was one of only 26 pitchers who qualified for the NL ERA title a year ago. He had the 20th best ERA among those pitchers. To be fair, he was 26th in FIP. 1.2 bWAR isn’t a huge deal. But, he’s certainly a stop gap until internal or external options surface for this team.
Four Cubs relievers each threw a scoreless inning, combining to allow two hits and two walks over the game’s final four innings. None of the Cubs’ top three relievers were called upon. Paired with an off day Thursday (and one earlier in the week on Monday), the Cubs can deploy their leverage relievers over the weekend.
The offense wasn’t overwhelming, but they were effective. They banged out 11 hits and drew four walks. For the first time in a few games, the Cubs had no homers. But they did bang out six doubles, including two each by Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. This was once again a wide team effort. This team can beat you in so many ways. They stole four more bases. This is a team that will drive you insane. Often while it is beating you.
Let’s go to the numbers.
Pitch Counts:
- Phillies: 179 pitches, 8 innings, 40 batters (22.38 PPI/4.48 PPB)
- Cubs: 163 pitches, 9 innings, 37 batters (18.11 PPI/4.41 PPB)
You can see evidence of a patient approach from the Phillies. This isn’t wildly surprising for a team that isn’t super far removed from winning it all. They have some well know hitters who work long counts, including old friend Kyle Schwarber. However, the Cubs offense was fierce, including ending Taijuan Walker’s day in just three innings. He threw 86 pitches in that time.
This was sort of what I’ve been envisioning with the patient approach, completely wearing the other team down. With the exception that the dam never did break for the Phillies. The Cubs forced the Phillies to use four relievers for five innings. One of those threw 41 pitches and is probably done for the weekend. To be fair, the Phillies leverage relievers were nowhere near this game either.
The operative question out of this game will be if Caleb Thielbar and Daniel Palencia are slowly hovering around the outskirts of the “A” group and can be used selectively in some moderate leverage situations as they were Friday.
Three Stars:
- Six innings is my no-brainer line for the top spot. But five scoreless, three hits, two walks and seven strikeouts for Colin Rea against a perceived good team? Yeah, that plays.
- Jon Berti was the third baseman of the day and he got the offense started with an RBI-double in the second. He had a pair of hits and scored a run on the day.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong was in the middle of things again as well. He scored that first run. He had a hit and an RBI on a sacrifice. Good luck as a scorekeeper in deciding if Pete was bunting for a hit or sacrificing with runners on base. He is a good bunter and lightning fast. He stole two more bases. PCA is a real problem for opposing teams.
Game 26, April 25: Cubs 4, Phillies 0 (16-10)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Colin Rea (.250). 5 IP, 20 BF, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K (W 1-0)
- Hero: Jon Berti (.104). 2-4, 2B, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.098). 2-5, 2 2B, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.081). 1-3, 2B, BB, R, SB
- Goat: Carson Kelly (-.047). 1-3, BB
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.011). 2-5, 2 2B
You have to love a game where all three goats made offensive contributions.
WPA Play of the Game: Jon Berti’s RBI double with one out in the second led to the game’s first run. (.108)
*Phillies Play of the Game: With the bases loaded and only one out in the first inning, Taijuan Walker struck out Dansby Swanson, keeping the game scoreless longer. (.074)
Wednesdays Winner: PCA received a whopping 395 votes out of 409 cast.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +15
- Miguel Amaya +8
- Jon Berti +6
- Shōta Imanaga +5
- PCA +3.5
- Porter Hodge/Ben Brown -5
- Nate Pearson/Brad Keller -6
- Matt Shaw -7
- Dansby Swanson -11
Up Next: Game two of a three game set. The Cubs will seek a fourth straight win (and sixth in seven games on the homestand). Ben Brown (2-1, 4.57, 21⅔ IP) will make his fifth start and sixth appearance of the year. He had an odd start last time, allowing one earned run on three hits and four walks over four innings. He did not face the Phillies in his rookie season.
27-year-old lefty Jesús Luzardo (2-0, 2.08, 30⅓ IP) signed with the Phillies in the offseason after pitching in Miami for three and a half seasons. He made only 12 starts last year. He’s blowing away anything he’s done in his career to date. Last time out, he held his old team to one run on eight hits with no walks in seven innings. He struck out seven. He’s a rare breed in modern times, averaging better than six innings per start.
Fortunately, these games aren’t played on paper. The Cubs are 15-8 versus right handed starters and only 2-2 versus lefties.
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