Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch enters the 2025 season with considerable expectations following a solid rookie year, but advanced statistics hint at a possible sophomore slump. The 27-year-old posted a .248 batting average, 21 home runs, 65 RBIs, and a 118 OPS+ in 2024, playing the full season.
The Cubs showed confidence in him by trading Cody Bellinger, making Busch their regular first baseman. However, Bleacher Report recently labeled him as one of MLB’s top bust candidates for 2025.
The main concern is a large discrepancy between his actual (.248) and expected batting average (.217), placing him in the 8th percentile among qualified hitters.
Although his 11.1% walk rate is a positive, his hard-hit rate and exit velocity suggest potential regression. These concerns were evident in the second half of last season, where he slashed .216/.303/.402. If Busch can maintain his power and plate discipline, he’ll remain a valuable part of the Cubs’ lineup.
But if his batted-ball data holds true, the team may need to rethink their future at first base. Busch’s 2025 performance will be closely watched, as the Cubs push for playoff contention. Will he meet the challenge, or will the advanced stats prove accurate?
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