Although Colts general manager Chris Ballard isn’t typically known for making big splashes in free agency as he did this time, his ability to maximize draft capital has consistently been his strong suit. In fact, his entire approach to roster building in Indianapolis has largely revolved around the draft—for better or worse.
Ballard’s draft success has varied depending on the position and round. Over the years, he has excelled at selecting offensive linemen and linebackers but has struggled to identify top-tier pass rushers. The Colts have fared well in drafting wide receivers in the second and third rounds but have largely missed the mark when it comes to selecting cornerbacks.
But how has Ballard performed specifically in the first round, particularly in recent years? Taking a quarterback in the opening round is often a blend of patience and urgency, which is exactly where the Colts find themselves with third-year signal-caller Anthony Richardson.
Assessing draft success becomes even more complex when a quarterback is involved, as their development can significantly sway the overall evaluation. Pro Football Focus (PFF) recently conducted an analysis aimed at quantifying first-round draft selections by assigning them an aggregate score based on performance over multiple years.
Using PFF’s grading system and a version of baseball’s Wins-Above-Replacement (WAR) statistic, the study provided a broad assessment of how well each NFL team has drafted in the first round. By MLB’s definition, WAR measures a player’s total impact on winning compared to a replacement-level player at the same position.
PFF also acknowledged the significant impact a quarterback has on these metrics, stating, “With the caveat that WAR totals are heavily tied to quarterback success, we can determine which teams have added the most and least value above replacement-level players over the past five first rounds of NFL drafts.”
With this methodology in mind, PFF ranked the Colts as the fifth-worst team in first-round drafting since 2020.