The Chicago Cubs took a big risk by forgoing making a splash for an ace pitcher in free agency or on the trade market this past offseason. Avoiding the likes of Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, or even Nathan Eovaldi for Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea felt like another instance of the club focusing on “breaking even” over winning.
Yet, in a year where starting pitching was more expensive than ever, the bets appear to be paying off big time. With a 2.54 ERA and an admittedly less impressive 4.02 FIP, Boyd has been one of their most reliable pitchers in the rotation early on.
Rea, however, has been so good thus far that it’s almost comical. In 18 2/3 innings, he owns a sparkling 0.96 ERA with a 1.51 FIP. Even going by expected stats, he’d be a very solid pitcher with an xERA of 3.05 and xFIP of 3.08. It’s a small sample, but he’s been the hero this team has needed with Justin Steele undergoing season-ending surgery and Javier Assad dealing with an oblique injury that has delayed his return. The question is, can it last?
There’s reason to buy into Rea’s transformation. For one, his average fastball velocity has increased a full mile per hour from last year to around 94 mph, and he’s leaning on that four-seamer over 30%(!) more while largely abandoning the sinker he once relied on around 30% of the time, among other repertoire changes. At 9.16, his strikeouts per nine are also higher than ever before in his career, while batters are only barreling the ball around 3.7% of the time, also a career best. He’s also in the 91st percentile of the league with only 1.45 walks per nine. Between the contact quality, velocity boost, and change in his approach, there isn’t much to suggest that the results Rea has gotten so far aren’t at least somewhat deserved.
However, it’s still important that the Cubs don’t overly rely on Rea as the savior of the rotation. Again, these results are from a small sample size, and it’ll take more stellar starts before we can begin making bolder statements.
For his career, he owns a 4.43 ERA and 4.57 FIP, never posting an ERA south of four in an MLB season. Boyd at least showed evidence he could hit a new level last year in his shortened run with the Guardians, but Rea has never been a pitcher of this caliber before. Moreover, hitters may not be used to this new look from the righty this early in the season.
The initial purpose of acquiring him was to give Craig Counsell one of his old reliable swingmen from his days in Milwaukee. Having him on the roster was meant to provide some bulk to the bullpen when needed and fill in for an injury, or whenever Counsell wanted to give his players extra rest. As a fill-in for Steele, he’s done admirably so far, but it would still be better to have a proven arm that can hold down that spot for the long haul.
The Cubs aren’t likely to leave the rotation as is
Fortunately, merely hoping that Rea can carry the load doesn’t appear to be the Cubs’ strategy. There’s an understanding that this year has the chance to be something special and a big trade for someone like Sandy Alcantara, for instance, will be needed to get this team over the hump.
They’re likely still a month or so from more aggressively trying to line up that move, but the search is already on to evaluate their options on both the front and back end of the pitching staff.
If Rea does start to struggle, they’ve also shown that they’re not afraid to quickly start churning through their options in the minors. Chris Flexen is on his way to the Major League level, and there’s always Jordan Wicks, who still has minor league options to work with. Their #2 prospect, Cade Horton, is also lighting up Iowa with a 1.06 ERA and an eye-popping 23 strikeouts in 17 innings, though the Cubs are likely to wait for a bit to see if he can keep it up and get the walks down.
It’s unrealistic to expect this version of Rea to remain an ace, but if he can still be a solid pitcher with a bit of regression and the Cubs can add an impact starter, the team will be positioned very well.
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