Chicago Cubs starter Jameson Taillon pitched another quality start on Saturday night in Milwaukee, going six innings and giving up two runs on three hits and striking out five. He lowered his season ERA to 3.86, notable after the rough first outing in Arizona.
One can look at Taillon’s tenure as a Cub and see “okay” numbers: 4.01 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.23 FIP, 7.4 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 in 359.1 innings. He is making $18 million a year, which in 2023 could have seemed pretty hefty, but there are two things to keep in mind. First, veteran starter arms are expensive. Even ones that are not top-of-the-rotation pitchers. Guys like Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, and post-injured Walker Buehler are making $20+ million a year. Second, what Taillon has done over his last 50 starts is worth diving into.
Easy to remember the disastrous first two months Taillon had as a Cub in 2023, pitching to a dismal 6.93 ERA in his first 14 starts. Since then, he has made 51 appearances (50 starts), starting with his famous shutout “revenge game” against the Yankees on July 7, 2023. Over that time, he’s pitched to a 3.38 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 4.04 FIP, 237 strikeouts, 62 walks, 7.2 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 295.2 innings, with hitters batting .234 against him with a .261 BABIP. He went 6.0+ innings in 30 of those 50 starts. Since the start of 2024, Taillon has 20 quality starts, which is in the top 20 among starters in baseball.
Outside of missing a few weeks to start the 2024 season, Taillon has been a durable starter who has gotten the job done. A 3.38 ERA over his last 51 appearances in a tough National League is nothing to gawk at, even if he is not the flashiest or most dominating pitcher out there. He does not blow hitters away, as his whiff rate has been below average the past two years, and he gets a lot of flyball contact — more so than ever since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2021. Still, he gets outs and puts the team in a position to win. Not walking guys (5.1 BB%) and having a good defense behind him helps.
The Cubs will need Jameson Taillon to continue being a workhorse.
Taillon holds a significant importance to this team, which will be without ace Justin Steele the rest of 2025…and the injury to Shota Imanaga. No, Taillon is not expected to pitch like an ace, but him delivering quality or solid starts consistently will be huge if he can keep it up. He has the stuff of a mid-lower rotation starter, but he has shown he can command it and be effective even if there is some hard contact in there.
It is harder to expect a 3.27 ERA again this year, as a bit of regression seems likely with some of the contact off him, so there could be some rough patches. Especially if flyballs are leaving Wrigley Field more than last year. That said, if he can end his season around his career numbers (3.89 ERA, 3.94 FIP), then he will have done his job. That kind of stat range makes $18 million look like decent value considering the modern pitching market. Ultimately, pitching fairly deep into games (by today’s standards) and keeping them in the game is what you can ask for from him.
For now, give Taillon some credit for what he has done going back nearly two years. He has done his job on the mound very quietly, while being outspoken publicly on what the Cubs should be as an organization. He has been nothing but professional since coming over and has pitched like a pro for nearly two years now.